Article source: https://www.realestate.com.au/news/borrowers-handed-pre-christmas-gift-as-rba-keeps-rates-on-hold/
The Reserve Bank of Australia has gifted households an interest rate reprieve in its last meeting of 2023, providing some much-needed breathing room ahead of the expensive holiday season.
But RBA governor Michele Bullock hasn’t ruled out further rate hikes in the new year if inflation fails to track towards the 2-3% target range in a reasonable timeframe.
"Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks," Ms Bullock said.
The decision to hold interest rates at 4.35% in December had been widely anticipated after recent data revealed a faster-than-expected decline in annual inflation.
PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said it was likely the cash rate has already peaked as the effects of the previous 13 hikes flows through the economy.
“Conditions are expected to continue to soften as the full impact of monetary tightening to date is yet to be felt and inflation is likely to continue moving lower as a result,” Ms Creagh said.
“The RBA has been clear that it has a low tolerance for allowing inflation to return to target more slowly than currently expected.
“This means it’s likely the cash rate has peaked in this current tightening cycle, although should inflation data indicate inflation is returning to target at a slower pace than currently expected the risk of another lift in February 2024 remains.”
ABS data last week revealed the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased sharply to 4.9% over the year to October, down from 5.6% in September.
"The limited information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting has been broadly in line with expectations," Ms Bullock said.
"The monthly CPI indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate, driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide much more information on services inflation."
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the result was driven by weakness in rents – albeit due to increased rent assistance - petrol prices, travel, meat, furniture and household appliances.
“Of course, the monthly CPI can be very volatile, various subsidies impacted in October, key services like hairdressing, dental and pet services weren’t measured, and underlying measures of inflation fell by less so there is a case to be cautious,” he said, “but the good news is that the downtrend looks to be resuming after two relatively higher months.”
Property prices defy higher interest rates
The latest PropTrack Home Price Index showed national property prices rose for an eleventh consecutive month in November to reach a new record high, although the pace of growth slowed as more supply came to market.
The latest growth means property prices have recovered all of the losses recorded in 2022 to sit 1.29% above the previous peak.
Ms Creagh said the decision to hold the cash rate steady in December will maintain both buyer and seller confidence.
“Property prices have defied expectations and home values have remained resilient to higher interest rates this year,” she said.
“Looking ahead, interest rates are either at, or very close to, their peak. The outlook for the economy is weaker, however, population growth is set to remain strong.
“Together with a shortage of new home builds and challenging conditions in the rental market, prices are expected to continue rising, though the pace of growth will continue to slow.”
Hayden Groves, president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia cautioned the RBA against raising the cash rate further amid a resurgence of first-home buyer and investor activity.
“The latest ABS figures show first-home buyers grew by 0.3% in October, 6.8% higher compared to a year ago,” Mr Groves said.
“Investors made up for $9.5 billion and was 12.1% higher compared to a year ago.”
And while lending for existing dwellings are sitting 5.2% higher year-on-year, lending for the construction of new dwellings remain almost 20% lower compared to a year ago.
“These figures indicate home buyers are still not feeling surety around building costs remaining stable,” he said.
Separate loan submissions data from Mortgage Choice showed total purchasing activity rose 3% in November as borrowers rushed to buy a home before the quiet New Year period.
But with fewer cash back deals on offer, refinancing activity eased 4% during the month.
Cost to consumers
While borrowers will welcome the pause in interest rates, the previous 13 hikes mean finding a home loan rate that starts with a 5 is already a thing of the past for many borrowers.
Mortgage Choice chief executive Anthony Waldron said future rate hikes could not be ruled out.
“By the next monetary policy meeting in February 2024, the RBA will have the December quarter CPI data to assess, so I'd be hesitant to breathe a sigh of relief just yet,” he said.
The rate hikes so far have already added almost $1,300 on average to the cost of a mortgage each month for a $500,000 home loan, assuming their lender passed on each hike in full.
For a borrower with $1 million outstanding on their home loan, the rate hikes have added more than $2,500 to monthly repayments compared to before the RBA began raising rates.
“As 2023 comes to a close, I’d encourage borrowers to review their home loan to ensure it's still competitive,” Mr Waldron said.
“And, if you’re planning to buy your first home or upgrade in 2024, this is a great time to set the wheels in motion for your home loan application. Your broker can help you understand your borrowing power and the home loan options available to you.”
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